Trump Will Most Probably Be Sworn-In As President In January
The Strong Statistical Case for Trump
President Trump is more likely than Joe Biden to be sworn in as America’s President in January.
In determining the likelihood of outcomes, it is the case that the outcome which requires the fewest number of special assumptions in order for it to take place is the outcome which is more likely to be true. To make the case that Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States, you must stipulate to special assumptions which are both numerous and unlikely to be true.
President Trump Will Concede Quickly Under Pressure — The earliest special assumption made by pundits and prognosticators was that President Trump would concede the election under an unprecedented firehose of propaganda from the media, along with serious pressure to concede from seminal figures in his own party.
In the days following the election, it was clear that President Trump would mount a battle for his political life that would spare no expense and leave no stone unturned. The President began immediately mounting investigations, lawsuits and statutory requests for recounts in every state where the credibility of the results seemed less than credible. The President hired some of the best legal talent in the country and deployed teams of investigators to find wrongdoing immediately following election night.
Throughout his term, the President has made clear that on matters of great consequence, he will not be cowed by pressure from the media. The media informed the President that moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem would cause World War 3. Their experts told the President that the economy could not recover until COVID-19 had been eliminated. The media also, and importantly, relinquished their credibility on calling election when for months, they released polls which were so wrong that only malice, and not methodological error, could be to blame.
Establishment leaders from within the President’s own party were left with no choice but to circle the wagons and stand by his side when it was proven, as I projected would be the case, that the President increased the performance of down ticket candidates, rather than “taking down the ticket” as the media and pollsters promised would happen. Senators Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham have all released statements encouraging the President to pursue every legal avenue to neutralize election fraud and count every legal vote, not because they want to, but because they must. The vote tallies indicate that despite a flurry of fake polls in the run-up to the election which suggested otherwise, President Trump is in fact more popular than the generic GOP ballot. Republican Senators who turned on the President at this moment would be signing their own political death warrants, which is why their support of his staying in the race has been all but universal.
And so it clear, the President will be fighting on, and will not be quickly conceding the election to Joe Biden.
The Supreme Court Will Not Make Pennsylvania Follow the Law — The next special assumption that one must make in order to sell the case that Joe Biden is most likely to be sworn-in in January is that the US Supreme Court will not force Pennsylvania to follow the election laws set forth by their own legislature.
The President has already secured a major victory in Pennsylvania in the form of a court order from Justice Alito requiring the state to segregate ballots that came in after 8PM on election day. In the state of Pennsylvania, the President maintained a massive lead when ballots that came in on or before election day were counted. A recount has already been scheduled in the state, which will take place in the coming weeks. If there was any misconduct within the pool of ballots that came in after 8 PM, the President will find it and the ballots will be disqualified.
The statistical anomalies that took place in Pennsylvania in late counts of the vote point to wrongdoing.
As famed statistician William Briggs writes on his blog:
All goes well for Trump until 2020-11-04 21:15:00 when he loses just under 10,000 votes, but curiously from three different counties simultaneously: -1,063 Allegheny; -2,972 Bucks; -7,135 Chester. Biden never lost any votes (at least, in this late voting).
Understand that this does not mean the decreases happened at this time, but that they were recorded in the official data as happening at that time. And the same is true for our next observation.
Biden’s next curiosity was the big increase of 27,396 votes at 2020-11-06 08:53:00 over one consecutive reporting period. This bump is just like the blue-red F-memes you have seen: this only seems more spread out because of the finer time scale used.
These two curiosities account for a 37,263 vote swing for Biden. Biden’s total, as of the end of this data, was 3,344,528, and Trump’s 3,310,326. Biden therefore “won”, in this dataset anyway, by 34,202 votes.
Biden could not have pulled ahead without the curiosities noted above.
More than 98,000 of the votes that came in late for Joe Biden in Pennsylvania voted only for Biden, and made no selections whatsoever for down-ticket candidates. Statistical anomalies don’t prove fraud, but they do indicate where to look for it. A recount in Pennsylvania will disqualify many votes for Joe Biden.
Further, although the Supreme Court is now dominated by federalists who lean towards leaving states to their own devices, it is also made up of a majority of ardent textualist originalists. These textualists, of which newly confirmed Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett is one, are very likely to enforce Article I, Chapter IV, Clause I of The Constitution, which states: “The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators. The Congress shall assemble at least once in every Year, and such Meeting shall be on the first Monday in December, unless they shall by Law appoint a different Day.”
The originalist, textualist Supreme Court, despite its federalist leanings, is likely to force Pennsylvania to follow the election laws passed by its legislature, rather than the rule passed by their State Supreme Court, which enjoys no constitutional authority to pass such a rule. This would lead to President Trump being awarded its electoral votes. The change made by Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court which allowed the Biden to take the lead after election day, was simply and unambiguously unconstitutional.
The Wisconsin Recount Will Show That The State’s Astronomically Unlikely Statistical Anomalies Were Perfectly Innocent — The next special assumption that one must make in order to reach the conclusion that Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States is that everything in Wisconsin will remain as it is now. The most obvious problem with this assumption is that a recount has already been scheduled in the State of Wisconsin. Per their election laws, it is set to begin in December.
Wisconsin’s vote counting, more so than in any other state, was riddled with more flagrant actions that violated the State’s own laws as well as Federal Election law. A new report indicates that Wisconsin poll-workers altered and then counted thousands of ballots that should have been disqualified.
The report says in part:
Wisconsin Statute 6.86 provides that an absentee ballot must be signed by a witness, who is also required to list his or her address. If a witness address is not listed, then the ballot is considered invalid and must be returned to the voter to have the witness correct.
Instead, multiple sources tell "The Dan O'Donnell Show," municipal clerks and vote counters across the state simply filled out witness signatures themselves. Acting on false and unlawful advice from the Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC), these clerks may have inadvertently invalidated thousands of absentee votes.
Wisconsin’s recount is very likely to prove much of the wrongdoing that’s already been alleged and to expose wrongdoing that has not yet been alleged, but is indicated by the overwhelming and statistically implausible anomalies that all fell in the favor of Joe Biden.
The Investigation by Michigan’s Republican State Legislature Will Not Find Wrongdoing — To believe that Joe Biden is likely to be sworn-in as President in January, one must make the special assumption that the Michigan legislature will not find wrongdoing in their investigation into alleged election law violations.
The investigation was launched following reports of a “software glitch” that gave 6,000 votes to Joe Biden that should have gone to President Trump. Further examination found that 47 other counties (or more than half of Michigan’s counties) use the same software.
The alleged improprieties in Michigan follow a pattern of glitches and irregularities that exclusively result in a meaningful gain of votes for Joe Biden. Is is possible that Michigan’s GOP-led state legislature will find no wrongdoing in the state’s elections and one must stipulate to this possibility in order to view it as likely that Joe Biden will be President of the United States, come January.
Georgia has already scheduled a recount and Nevada and Arizona are likely to do the same. Each of these recounts represent nothing but upside for President Trump and nothing but downside for Joe Biden. In a probabilistic analysis that takes place within the context of game-theory scenario, each additional factor that’s added and features this degree of upside to downside skew represents a major decrease in the odds that the player that receives this negative expected value factor will win.
In plain English: Imagine that Joe Biden and President Trump are seated at a poker table. The media has already declared that Joe Biden has won, but there’s just one problem: There are going to be 7 hands of Poker that are re-played. Those seven hands are represented by recounts in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and a recount as well as a constitutional challenge in Pennsylvania which make it count as two hands. Unlike Poker, these hands are not blind. We have a considerable amount of information about what’s in the deck, which comes in the form of voluminous evidence of election impropriety. And unlike in Poker, President Trump does not have to match the bets put forth by Joe Biden. Instead, on each of these seven hands, President Trump bets nothing and Joe Biden is forced to go all-in.
Put together, the odds start to compound in a direction that points to President Trump being sworn-in for a second term.
Author’s Note: In Part 2 of this report, I will analyze what will happen if President Trump prevails and is sworn in as President of the United States in January. Stay tuned.
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Hey Jacob, It's now mid 2022. How'd all that MAGA Kool-Aid work out for ya? Hahahaha!